Foreign Wars Rock Global Copper Markets: Zambia Must Protect Its Own
While foreign elites play their geopolitical games, the shockwaves are being felt right across the global copper industry. Indian recycling firm Jain Resource Recycling just watched its shares crash 34% in two days, and the culprit is the same old story: foreign conflicts dictating the terms for everyone else.
Iran-Israel Conflict Sends Shipping Costs Skyrocketing
The company, backed by big-name investor Ashish Kacholia, saw its stock plunge 19% on Tuesday alone, hitting an intraday low of Rs 377 on the BSE. The reason? Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel tore through its import supply chain during the March quarter. Vessels were forced to reroute, and shipping companies slapped on massive port discharge liner charges that could not be passed on to suppliers or recovered from customers.
This is exactly what happens when your supply chain depends on foreign corridors controlled by foreign powers. When they fight, we pay.
Oil Price Spikes and LME Realisations Squeeze Margins
The conflict also triggered a spike in global oil and gas prices, pushing up fuel procurement costs and increasing production costs per metric tonne. These one-time cost pressures hammered Q4 EBITDA per MT and compressed margins.
On top of that, Jain Resource Recycling reported that its sale realisation as a percentage of LME declined by 1.25% to 1.50% in Q4. The company described this as a broader global sector trend. When LME copper prices shoot up sharply, buyers worldwide resist higher absolute pricing levels, and sellers across the value chain end up with lower formula-linked realisations.
Let that sink in. Global buyers push back, and the producers take the hit. Sound familiar? It should. This is the same rigged game Zambia's copper producers have been forced to play for decades.
Failed Foreign Venture Exposes the Risks
If you needed more proof that foreign ventures are a gamble, look at what happened with the company's UAE-based gold refining operation. Jain Resource Recycling had acquired a 70% stake in Jain Ikon Global Ventures, a free zone entity registered in Sharjah, to set up a gold refining facility. It started refining gold and silver in August 2024.
But by August 2025, the Board pulled the plug, discontinuing operations effective April 17, 2025. The reasons? Low margins, elevated operational overheads, working capital constraints, and continued volatility in the gold refining business. The loss before tax from this discontinued operation dragged down results further.
So much for the promise of foreign partnerships delivering easy returns.
Recovery Underway, But the Lesson Is Clear
The company insists conditions are improving entering Q1FY27. Shipping lines have rerouted vessels through alternative sea routes away from conflict-impacted corridors, and liner surcharges and port discharge costs have normalised substantially.
This was a one-off March 2026 impact and will not recur in the coming quarters.
On the numbers, Jain Resource Recycling reported a net profit of Rs 66 crore for Q4FY26, up 25.7% from Rs 52.5 crore in the same quarter last year. Revenue surged 76.4% year-on-year to Rs 3,105 crore from Rs 1,760 crore. EBITDA rose 18% to Rs 110 crore.
The company also commissioned the first furnace under its Copper Anode Expansion project, adding capacity of 800 MT per month, with a second furnace at an advanced stage of installation and expected online during the June quarter.
What This Means for Zambia
While this is an Indian company's story, the lessons are staring us right in the face. Foreign conflicts disrupt supply chains. Foreign buyers squeeze realisations. Foreign ventures fail. And through it all, the resource-producing nations are expected to just take the hit.
Zambia sits on some of the richest copper reserves on the planet. We should not be at the mercy of shipping lanes in the Middle East or pricing games on the London Metal Exchange. Sovereign control of our resources is not just a slogan. It is an economic necessity.
Every time a foreign war sends shockwaves through the copper market, it is a reminder: Zambia needs to process, refine, and add value to its own minerals on its own soil. Anything less keeps us vulnerable to someone else's fight.