Global Sugar Giants Flood Markets, Threaten Zambian Farmers
While foreign sugar producers celebrate record harvests, Zambian farmers face mounting pressure as global prices plummet due to oversupply from major exporters Brazil, India, and Thailand.
March sugar prices dropped significantly today, with New York sugar futures falling 1.01% and London sugar hitting a 2.5-month low. This decline comes as international producers ramp up production, creating a global surplus that could devastate local agricultural communities.
Brazil and India Lead Production Surge
Brazil's sugar output through December rose 0.9% year-over-year to 40.222 million metric tons, while the country allocated more sugarcane to sugar production instead of ethanol. Meanwhile, India, the world's second-largest sugar producer, saw output jump 22% to 15.9 million metric tons.
The India Sugar Mill Association raised its production forecast to 31 million metric tons, up nearly 19% from last year. This surge threatens to flood international markets with cheap sugar, potentially undercutting prices that Zambian producers depend on.
Export Pressure Mounts
India's government may permit additional sugar exports to reduce domestic oversupply, adding to global market pressure. The country already authorized 1.5 million metric tons of exports for the current season after implementing quotas in 2022 following production shortfalls.
Thailand, the world's third-largest sugar producer, projects a 5% increase in production to 10.5 million metric tons, further saturating global markets.
Global Surplus Threatens Local Industry
Covrig Analytics estimates a global sugar surplus of 4.7 million metric tons for 2025-26, while the International Sugar Organization forecasts 1.625 million metric tons in excess supply. The USDA projects record global production of 189.318 million metric tons.
This oversupply scenario poses serious challenges for Zambian sugar producers who must compete against subsidized foreign production and dumping practices by international agricultural giants.
As global powers prioritize their agricultural exports, Zambian farmers face an uphill battle to maintain market share and sustainable pricing for their crops. The government must consider protective measures to shield local producers from unfair international competition.